Football spread betting - goals supremacy
This is the simplest football market
of who scores the most goals. A Man Utd./Arsenal quote
may go 1.1-1.3 which indicates Man U as favourite by
1.2 goals. If you think that on average they are bigger
favourites than 1.3 goals then you would buy (go high)
at 1.3.
If they then win by 2 goals, you would win the difference
between 1.3 and 2, multiplied by your stake per goal.
So you may buy at £10 per goal, in which case
you would win 0.7 multiplied by 10, equalling £7.
If however, Arsenal then won the game by 2 goals, you
would lose the difference between –2 and 1.3,
multiplied by your stake per goal. The same £10
bet would cost you 2.7 multiplied by 10, equalling £27.
If you thought this was more even contest, then you
might want to sell (go low) at 1.1. If your instincts
were right, and the game ends up a draw, then the make
up would be zero and you would win the difference between
1.1 and zero, multiplied by your stake per goal, in
this case equating to 1.1 multiplied by £10, equalling
11.
If you get it horribly wrong though, and Arsenal crash
to a 3-0 defeat, you would lose the difference between
3 and 1.1 multiplied by your stake per goal, equalling
2.9 times £10, or £29.
The spreads on football matches tend to be slightly
loaded towards the home team, as most people over estimate
the statistical supremacy of the home team and consequently,
the majority of gets placed on home teams with short
odds (often as part of accumulator bets on multiple
selections, where punters are looking to link together
strings of ‘dead certs’).
However, statistics show that home teams win matches
less than half of the time, so you are actually likely
to lose less money in the long run by going low on the
home team, and hoping the away side can get a draw or
a win. If you can consistently spot teams that can defy
the odds and get a result away from their own patch,
then you could well be on to a winning formula, particularly
if companies are offering fairly high spreads.
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