Football spread betting - total goals
This is simply a market on the total
goals scored in match, a bet type that allows you to
gamble on a game, without having a vested interest in
who actually wins.
It is intrinsically linked to the supremacy market
– where a team has a very high supremacy quote,
then the spread company is expecting them to win comfortably.
As a result, the spread for the total goals market is
likely to be higher than normal.
An average spread for total goals in a premiership
match is likely to be something like 2.4 – 2.7,
with the midpoint of 2.55 roughly equating to the long
term average for the number of goals scored per game.
So the quote may look like Man U-Arsenal 2.6-2.8. It
means that if you think 3 or more goals is likely then
you may want to buy at 2.8. If you do and 6 goals are
scored (the make-up) then you win ( 6 - 2.8 ) x your
bet. If no goals are scored, then you lose (2.8 –
0) x your bet.
On the other hand, if you think that fewer than 3 goals
will be scored, then you would sell at 2.6. If one goal
wins it, then you would win (2.6 – 1) x your bet.
If the game ends 2 –1, you would lose (3 –
2.6) x your bet.
As with the supremacy markets, on the whole sellers
are likely to win more frequently than buyers, but the
value of the wins is lower. Buyers on the other hand
lose more frequently, but lose less money each time,
while there will be some games where they enjoy big
wins.
An interesting approach to betting on this type of
market would be to find games where the home team has
a particularly poor attack (scoring an average of less
than 0.9 goals per game) while the away team has a particularly
good defence (conceding an average of less than 0.9
goals per game), then the perceived supremacy of the
home team is likely to push the total goals spread up
to a sufficiently high level that you can generate good
long term returns by going low on the home team and
hoping that only 1 or 2 goals are scored in the game.
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