Value in spread betting
Value betting refers to a situation in
which a bet is made when the chances of the predicted
outcome are greater than those suggested by the odds
quoted. For instance, if the odds on Liverpool winning
at Old Trafford have been quoted at 4/1 and, by whatever
means, you assess that their true odds of winning are
closer to 3/1, then the extra odds surmised are referred
to as ‘value’.
Many serious bettors endeavour to make their own odds
before the event takes place. For instance, if after
analysing the statistics pertaining to a certain racehorse
that they feel may be undervalued in the betting market
and assign a target price of 4/1 that would make it
an acceptable bet. The next day the horse may receive
bookmaker’s odds of 5/1, then the extra odds they
have received on their bet is again represented as ‘value’.
True value, can however, only be identified on bets
where it can be conclusively demonstrated that the price
is wrong. In spread betting terms, if one was able to
safely assume that the winning margin in a grand prix
was 20 seconds and obtain a quote of between of 190-200
seconds over a sixteen race season, it becomes clear
that that only a little over a twelve second margin
per race was being allowed for. You can, therefore,
be fairly certain that buying at 200 seconds represents
tremendous value as the true spread stands at 315 -325.
Where comparing spread markets on offer from different
companies, you should always try and look for the best
value bets. If you are selling (going low), you should
look for the highest possible spread and if you are
buying (going high), you should look for the lowest
possible spread. This way your own winning margin is
maximised in the event of a successful bet, while the
losing margin is minimised if you are unsuccessful.
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